Posted by: erl happ | January 1, 2016


My name is Erl Happ. The ‘Erl’ is an abbreviation of Erland.

In the second last paragraph in the last post on this blog ‘climate change 1’, written in August 2013,  I  wrote:

A new narrative is required that accounts for the seasonal and hemispheric differences in the advance and retreat of surface temperature that we observe. That narrative will describe the annual modes (should be annular) linking them to the state of surface pressure relations that drive the winds, cloud cover, surface temperature and rainfall. Change in the annual modes will be linked to variation in the ozone content of the stratosphere. Variation in the ozone content of the stratosphere will in turn be linked to the influence of the sun in ionising the atmosphere and the solar wind affecting the electromagnetic environment of the ionised atmosphere. The atmosphere will be seen to move to and from the poles and to pile up in equatorial latitudes when it departs the poles, chiefly Antarctica. This initiates change in the annular modes. Once initiated, forces within the Earth system tend to enhance and exaggerate change in the atmosphere, promoting and lending persistence to new states.

The good news is that I returned this endeavour a year ago, and made some very exciting breakthroughs, almost by accident. I am now able to provide a coherent account of the workings of the atmosphere, the drivers of change in surface weather and the source of natural climate variation, an endeavour that I have always considered to be vital in order to ascertain whether man is at all, partly or wholly responsible for the increase in surface temperature over the last 70 or so years. The first four posts in a series of about thirty chapters, prepared over the last three months of 2015, appear at the new WordPress site:

The very good news is that it appears that natural organic processes can account for all the change that has been observed over the period where good data is available.

The not so good news is that a globe that is on balance uncomfortably cool, is about to get cooler. The process of change to a cooler Earth has been under way now for two decades. It is signalled in the evolution of temperature in those months that respond most strongly to polar atmospheric  processes.

It is indeed a pleasure to present this work.


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